Opinium/Telegraph Scottish Referendum Poll
Survey Results
Date Published: 
Tue, 16/09/2014 - 08:57
Our final poll before the referendum shows voters narrowly against independence with 52% likely to vote "No" and 48% voting "Yes" as the referendum approaches. Opinium Research and the Daily Telegraph polled 1,100 Scottish adults (16+) for their views on the referendum and independence.

As we reach the last few days of the campaign, our poll of 1,156 eligible Scottish voters aged 16+ for the Telegraph shows that the unionist campaign have a four point lead of 52% to 48% once undecided voters are excluded.

Excluding undecided voters

Among all Scottish voters who are 10/10 certain to vote, 45% would vote to leave the United Kingdom, 49% would vote to stay and 6% are undecided.

Including undecided voters

Further devolution

The Scottish government has been promised new powers over setting income tax and other measures if Scotland votes against independence. However, half (50%) of Scots do not trust that these powers will be delivered as promised, while 34% do.

A divisive campaign

Half (49%) of Scots agreed with the statement "the independence referendum campaign has caused deep divisions within Scotland and has damaged relations between Scotland and the rest of the UK", including a fifth (18%) of 'Yes' voters.

By comparison, only 23% agreed that the campaign "has been a force for good and has brought people in Scotland closer together".

The pound in an independent Scotland

Just under half (47%) of Scots thought that Scotland would be able to retain the pound after independence, while 37% thought they wouldn't. Two thirds (67%) of those that thought the pound would be retained after a 'Yes' victory thought this would be inside a currency union, despite arguments to the contrary from the No campaign.

Alex Salmond's future

If No should come out top in the referendum, 44% thought that Alex Salmond should resign as First Minister, including a fifth (19%) of Yes voters. However, a similar number (47%) thought he should stay regardless.

Biggest influence behind a possible Yes victory

When we asked about the biggest influences for a possible 'Yes' victory, two in five (38%) said "dislike of Westminster politicians" would be the most important factor. Interestingly, a larger proportion of 'No' voters picked this to 'Yes' voters (45% to 31%).

Notes to Journalists: 

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,156 Scottish adults aged 16+ from 12th to 15th September 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally representative demographic criteria as well as taking into account the results of recent elections in Scotland.

Additional Info: 

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of Scottish adults (aged 16+ in Scotland). The sample is defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (16-34, 35-54, and 55+), region, working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.
Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.

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