16th October 2012
Westminster
Political Polling
Date Published: 
Fri, 19/10/2012 - 14:47
After the close of the conference season Labour's lead is 9 points with 40% compared to 31% for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems trail UKIP again with 9% and 10% respectively.

Labour have a 9 point lead over the Conservatives, 40% to 31%, while the Lib Dems trail UKIP again, 9% to 10%.

Ed Miliband's improved ratings since his conference speech are holding steady while PM David Cameron has recovered after his dip before the Conservative Conference.

  • 33% of likely voters approve of Prime Minister David Cameron's job performance (up from 30% two weeks ago) while 50% disapprove, bringing his net approval rating up to -17%. The PM dipped to -21% in the last survey taken just before the start of the Conservative party conference
  • In the wake of his well received conference speech, Labour leader Ed Miliband saw his approval rating rise to a record high and two weeks later appears to have only just dipped down from that peak. 27% approve while 38% disapprove giving him a net rating of -11%, down slightly from -10%
  • Despite his post-conference bounce, Mr Miliband wasn't quite able to overtake David Cameron in raw approval numbers (higher disapproval numbers for the PM give him a lower net approval score than the Labour leader). The two men were very close in the last survey with Mr Miliband on 28% and Mr Cameron on 30% but this week's figures show the gap increasing again
  • Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's ratings are unchanged with 13% of likely voters approving and 61% disapproving, making his net rating -48%

Topline Voting Intention

  % Change
Conservative 31 +1
Labour 40 -1
Liberal Democrats 9 n/c
Other parties 20 n/c

Other Parties (breakdown)

  % Change
UKIP 10 -1
Green 4 n/c
SNP 4 n/c
BNP 2 +1
Plaid Cymru 0 n/c
Other 1 +1

Approval ratings

  % Approve % Disapprove Net rating Net rating (own party)
David Cameron 33% 50% -17% +78%
Ed Miliband 27% 38% -11% +45%
Nick Clegg 13% 61% -48% +31%

Voting Intention Tracker

Notes to Journalists: 

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,951 GB adults aged 18+ from 16th to 18th October 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Additional Info: 

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.

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