22nd January 2013
Westminster
Political Polling
Date Published: 
Mon, 28/01/2013 - 09:17
No sign of a referendum bounce for David Cameron as Labour continue to hold a 13 point lead.

Labour are on 41% 13 points ahead of the Conservatives on 28%. UKIP remain in 3rd with 14% while the Lib Dems rise slightly to 8%.

  • As fieldwork for this survey began on the evening of Tuesday 22nd January, just over half of the overall number of interviews took place before the Prime Minister gave his speech promising an eventual referendum on EU membership. The vast majority were completed before the story was featured on the evening news on the 23rd of January. Therefore it may not be surprising that we haven’t any boost for the Conservatives
  • Mr Cameron’s EU veto in December 2011 put his party either at parity with Labour or even ahead before the impact of the 2012 budget and other factors gave Labour consistently high leads for most of 2012
  • David Cameron has actually seen a slight drop in his approval rating since our last poll where he was receiving something of a New Year bounce. 33% approve of his performance, down from 36% two weeks ago. 52% disapprove compared to 50% causing his net approval rating to drop from -14% to -19%
  • Ed Miliband’s approval ratings remain identical to those recorded two weeks ago, 26% approve while 41% disapprove, giving him a net rating of -15%
  • Nick Clegg’s relatively good performance in the last survey appears to be an outlier as his approval rating has returned to 13% while those disapproving increase to 60% giving him a net rating of -47%

Topline Voting Intention

  % Change
Conservative 28 -3
Labour 41 n/c
Liberal Democrats 8 +1
Other parties 23 +2

Other Parties (breakdown)

  % Change
UKIP 14 +2
Green 3 +1
SNP 3 -1
BNP 2 +1
Plaid Cymru 1 n/c
Other 1 n/c

Approval ratings

  % Approve % Disapprove Net rating Net rating (own party)
David Cameron 33% 52% -19% +80%
Ed Miliband 26% 41% -15% +40%
Nick Clegg 13% 60% -47% +31%

Voting Intention Tracker

Voting Intention Tracker inc. UKIP

Notes to Journalists: 

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,949 GB adults aged 18+ from 22nd to 24th January 2013. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Additional Info: 

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium’s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.

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